Repository Research Centre: CREATE - Le Centre de Recherche en économie de l'Environnement, de l'Agroalimentaire, des Transports et de l'Énergie

Are Gasoline Demand Elasticities Different across Cities?

Mon, 02 Nov 2015 20:33:59 GMT

Title: Are Gasoline Demand Elasticities Different across Cities?

Authors: Barla, Philippe; Herrmann, Markus; Ordas-Criado, Carlos; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F.

Issue Date: 2015-09

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the heterogeneity in gasoline demand price and income elasticities across 40 cities in the province of Quebec Canada using quarterly data over the 2004 to 2009 period. We reject the hypothesis of identical elasticities across markets. However, the range of values for the price elasticity, between -0.65 and -0.14, is relatively narrow and confirms that the demand for gasoline is price inelastic. We find evidence that the average price and income elasticity is somewhat larger in markets with public transportation. Furthermore, these markets experience a strong declining trend in gasoline use per capita.

Oil Price Forecasts for the Long-Term: Expert Outlooks, Models, or Both?

Mon, 02 Nov 2015 19:40:00 GMT

Title: Oil Price Forecasts for the Long-Term: Expert Outlooks, Models, or Both?

Authors: Bernard, Jean-Thomas; Khalaf, Lynda; Kichian, Maral; Yelou, Clement

Issue Date: 2015-08

Abstract: Expert outlooks on the future path of oil prices are often relied on by industry participants and policymaking bodies for their forecasting needs. Yet little attention has been paid to the extent to which these area accurate. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model is quite successful at beating the benchmark random walk model, but only at either end of the forecast horizons. We also show that, for the longer horizons, simple econometric forecasting models often produce similar if not better accuracy than the EIA model. Among these, time-varying specifications generally also exhibit stability in their forecast performance. Finally, while combining forecasts does not change the overall patterns, some additional accuracy gains are obtained at intermediate horizons, and in some cases forecast performance stability is also achieved.

RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-Diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon

Thu, 13 Aug 2015 19:37:37 GMT

Title: RTAs' Proliferation and Trade-Diversion Effects: Evidence of the "Spaghetti Bowl" Phenomenon

Authors: Sorgho, Zakaria

Issue Date: 2015-06

Abstract: This paper investigates the trade-diversion effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs), so-called “Spaghetti bowl” Phenomenon (SBP), in multilateral trade. The SBP is due to the proliferation of RTAs. Thus, I investigate the relationship between the number of RTAs concluded by a country and the additional trade value attributed to an RTA. Using bilateral trade data in a sample of 119 countries, from 1995 to 2012, my main finding reveals a negative trade-effect between them, confirming the existence of SBP multilateral trade. However, results could not conclude evidence of a negative effect of overlapping RTAs, involving the existence of SBP, within North-North, North-South or South-South trade. But, the additional trade value attributed to an RTA concluded with EU countries or US seems to confirm significantly a trade-diversion effect because of the number of RTAs signed by these countries.

Effects of Corruption on Efficiency of the European Airports

Wed, 18 Mar 2015 19:42:58 GMT

Title: Effects of Corruption on Efficiency of the European Airports

Authors: Randrianarisoa, Laingo M.; Bolduc, Denis; Choo, Yap Yin; Oum, Tae H.; Yan, Jia

Issue Date: 2015-02

Abstract: The effect of corruption on airport productive efficiency is analyzed using an unbalanced panel data of major European airports from 2003 to 2009. We first compute the residual (or net) variable factor productivity using the multilateral index number method and then apply robust cluster random effects model in order to evaluate the importance of corruption. We find strong evidence that corruption has negative impacts on airport operating efficiency; and the effects depend on the ownership form of the airport. The results suggest that airports under mixed public-private ownership with private majority achieve lower levels of efficiency when located in more corrupt countries. They even operate less efficiently than fully and/or majority government owned airports in high corruption environment. We control for economic regulation, competition level and other airports’ characteristics. Our empirical results survive several robustness checks including different control variables, three alternative corruption measures: International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) corruption index, Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and Control of Corruption Index (CCI). The empirical findings have important policy implications for management and ownership structuring of airports operating in countries that suffer from higher levels of corruption.

Efficiences technique et environnementale en agriculture: le cas du bassin de la rivière Chaudière au Québec

Wed, 19 Nov 2014 15:37:18 GMT

Title: Efficiences technique et environnementale en agriculture: le cas du bassin de la rivière Chaudière au Québec

Authors: Ndegue Fongue, M.K.; Tamini, L.D.; Larue, B.; West, G.E.

Issue Date: 2014-10

Abstract: Malgré l’imposition de normes environnementales strictes au Québec, l’impact des activités agricoles sur la qualité de l’eau demeure préoccupant notamment dans la région de Chaudière-Appalaches. Cette région est intensive en productions animale et végétale ce qui entraîne des surplus de phosphore, d’azote et de sédiments. Cette étude a pour objectif que d’analyser l’efficience technique et l'efficience environnementale des producteurs agricoles du bassin de la rivière Chaudière localisé au Sud de la ville de Québec. Nous adoptons une approche stochastique paramétrique appliquée aux fonctions de distance. Les données utilisées portent sur 210 fermes agricoles et les résultats obtenus montrent qu’il existe une forte corrélation entre les deux efficiences. De plus, comme le montrent d’autres études, la performance environnementale entraîne des coûts additionnels au niveau des exploitations agricoles.